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Archive for the ‘The Silver Market’ Category

http://www.goldenjackass.com
The Golden Jackass – Great resource for articles and information about the economy, currency issues, The Federal Reserve, Precious Metals & more.

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from http://inflation.us/silverbestinvestment.html

December 11, 2009

NIA Declares Silver Best Investment for Next Decade

We are less than three weeks away from entering the next decade. The most important thing you need to know entering 2010 is that silver is the single best investment for the next decade. In our opinion, investing into silver is the only sure way to tremendously increase your purchasing power over the next ten years.

Throughout world history, only ten times more silver has been mined than gold. If you go back about 1,000 years ago between the years 1000 and 1250, gold was worth ten times more than silver worldwide. From year 1250 to 1792, the gold to silver ratio slowly increased from 10 to 15 and the Coinage Act of 1792 officially defined a gold to silver ratio of 15. The ratio remained at 15 until forty-two years later when the ratio was increased in 1834 to 16, where it remained until silver was demonetized in 1873.

The gold to silver ratio remained between 10 and 16 for 873 years! It is only over the past 100 years that the gold to silver ratio has averaged 50. History will look back at the artificially high gold to silver ratio of the past century as an anomaly, caused by the dollar bubble and the world being deceived into believing that fiat currencies are real money, when in fact they’re all an illusion. Next decade, the fiat currency experiment will end badly in a currency crisis. The wealthiest people will be those who bought silver today and were smart enough to research and pick the best silver mining stocks.

While the vast majority of the gold ever produced remains sitting in vaults, 95% of the silver produced has been consumed by industry for thousands of applications in such tiny amounts that most of it will never be recycled and seen on the market again. Nobody knows the exact above ground supply of silver today, but most likely it is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 billion ounces. That’s a total worldwide market value of only $17.4 billion, when the world has over $7 trillion in foreign currency reserves, mostly in fiat currencies that they will need to diversify out of due to rampant inflation.

Besides the fact that the world has been ignoring the monetary value of silver, silver prices are artificially low due to a large concentrated naked short position. It’s not a coincidence that the day silver reached its multi-decade high of over $21 per ounce in March of 2008, was the same day Bear Stearns failed. Bear Stearns was a holder of a massive short position in silver. In our opinion, this was likely a naked short position because there is nobody in the world who owns such a large amount of silver for Bear Stearns to have borrowed.

The reason why we believe the Federal Reserve was so eager to orchestrate a bailout of Bear Stearns, is because Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their silver short position. Because the silver market is so small and tightly held, if Bear Stearns was forced to cover their short position, silver prices could’ve potentially rose to $50 per ounce or higher overnight. The world would’ve seen how economically unstable our country is and confidence in the U.S. dollar would’ve rapidly deteriorated.

JP Morgan still holds the silver short position they inherited from Bear Stearns. The concentrated naked short position in silver today is the largest short position in the history of all commodities, as a percentage of its market size. Eventually, JP Morgan will have to cover this short position or it could jeopardize their existence.

The best evidence that the short position in silver is naked and not backed by real silver, is the differential between what silver trades for on the Comex and what real people are willing to pay for physical silver on eBay. Every hour on eBay, there are dozens of one ounce silver coins selling for approximately $25. That’s about a 43% premium over the current spot price of silver. With so much demand for physical silver, we doubt the silver shorts in the paper market will be able to manipulate prices downward for much longer. A major short squeeze could be right around the corner and silver could take off in a way that shocks even those who are most bullish.

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Stagecoach Bars available at Tea Party Silverby Allan Seccombe
November 13, 2009

ADVANCES in technology, increasing focus on reducing human interaction with bacteria, and tracking goods and people are all good news for silver and the price of the industrial metal, which has lagged for so long, says Jessica Cross, CEO of VM Group.

Long regarded as the poor cousin of gold, the metal, which is mainly used in industrial applications as well as to make jewelry, has bright prospects, with off take in a spectrum of new products put at just below 350 million ounces by 2020 (see graph below), Cross argued in a presentation at the LBMA Conference earlier this month.

The silver price is currently trading around $17.30/oz, (TP Note: at today’s pricing 11/23/09, make that $18.60 ± ) a level that it traded around in the first half of 2008 when it broke up to just shy of $21. These two spikes were unparalleled, certainly since 1985, with the metal touching slightly north of $8.50 just once since then.

 Looking at the history of the silver market, Cross said about two thirds of the mined metal is a by-product of other minerals like copper, gold and lead, making it difficult to determine a price at which silver production would fall in a natural supply and demand scenario. Being a by-product, the metal will come onto the market almost regardless what the price is for it.

One of the major users of silver, the photographic film sector, is being particularly hard hit as consumers turn to digital cameras. A graph of silver demand by the sector shows a steady decline since a peak above 200 million ounces in the early 1990s to well below 150 million ounces in 2009.

Another anchor on silver prices, which tend to take direction from the waxing and waning gold price, is that a lot of silver used in a range of applications – like photographic film, electronics and batteries — tends to be recycled, bringing back about 400 million ounces a year of the metal to the market.

But the days of huge recycling could be drawing to an end, Cross said, pointing to a host of technological advances needing silver, including wound care, food hygiene and water, wood preservatives, textiles, solar panels and radio frequency identification tags.

“These new end uses for silver are set to pick up the demand slack left by the shrinking photographic industry,” she said. “But, unlike photographic film, these end users do not generate vast amounts of recycled metal. In general… the metal is going to be taken off the market for good.”

Silver’s time has come, she said.

“The change is coming about as a result of silver’s unique properties as a biocide as well as is superior conductivity,” she said.

“The interesting thing is that many of the world’s worries and woes today are playing right into the hands of silver and this metal appears to be in the right place at the right time in a number of applications.”

Radio frequency identification tags, used in identity documents, passports and stock controls, are growing in use. China, for example is spending $6B to install these devices in identity documents for all its citizens and in transport tickets, she said.

London-based metals consultancy VM Group estimates use of these tags will grow to more than 30 billion by 2020 from around seven billion now. Each tag contains about 10 milligrams of silver on average, absorbing nine million ounces of silver from the 2.3 million ounces currently.

Solar panels and mirrors could absorb another 50 million ounces by 2020 compared to 18 million ounces now. Wood preservative coatings could account for up to 100 million ounces a year as chromate copper arsenic, the existing wood preservative is phased out.

There were no estimates of the amount of silver that could be used in plasters and bandages, which use silver for its anti-bacterial properties. These properties also feed into the clothing and textile sector where body odors and bacteria are eliminated.

Silver is also used in water purification devices and to store food. It could take up around 95 million oz by 2020.

“Superimpose this good news on the tonnages of silver that have gone into the ETFs (silver-backed exchange-traded funds) and you have an underlying strength within this market to justify its current price strength,” Cross said.

The gold:silver ratio is expected to narrow. At current prices you can buy 64.4 ounces of silver for the price of a single ounce of gold.

“The current market conditions indicate that gold has become overpriced and silver has become underpriced, suggesting there will be a shift in assets from gold to silver,” said Jeffrey Lewis, who edits Silver-coin-investor.com.

 “Since 1970, the ratio of the number of ounces of silver you could buy with one ounce of gold has run as high as 80:1 and as low as 20:1, with a mean of 54:1. Today’s ratio is moderately higher than 54:1; in fact, the ratio is nearing 64:1, suggesting that there will be a correction in either the price of gold, or silver will advance to make up the deficit,” he said.

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US Mint Suspends Sale of 2009 Gold & Silver Eagles
Mary Beth at Tea Party silver
November 29, 2009
 

If, like me, you have been watching the spot price of gold and silver lately you would be seeing that your investments in silver have been growing. One of the first things I do every morning is check the spot prices… Naturally, this is something I need to keep on top of throughout the day so that TPS can keep our pricing structure current… but as a fellow silver investor and co-owner now of a gold mining operation, I have a vested interest in watching what is going on.
 

In the last week we’ve seen gold almost reach the $1200 mark… and silver came close to $19. The first thing that this triggers in my mind is the question: “Okay… What’s happening out there?” This, then prompts me to go digging for articles, research, commentary by the experts to tell me what has impacted the pricing spikes or drops (as the case may be). Much of what I discover in this process I bring to the TP Newsletter to keep YOU informed …
 

One of the things that happened this week is that the US Mint has suspended the sale of gold and silver American Eagles. Several people have called me to ask about this. But, before I go further though let me pontificate a little about the issue of numismatic values compared to investment values of precious metals, because this will have a bearing on understanding the rest of this article.
 

Numismatics, according to Wikipedia, is “is the study or collection of currency, including coins, tokens, paper money, and related objects.” So when we speak of ‘numismatic value’ we aren’t necessarily only talking about precious metals.
 

Numismatic values are driven by many factors besides the metal content itself. The following is a list of some of those factors: 

  • Year of production
  • Design quality
  • Condition of the coin/currency at the time of valuation (circulated, uncirculated, scratches, dents, dings, corrosion etc.)
  • Minting errors
  • Socio-political events
  • Rarity
  • Quality – proof or burnished

Any or all of these factors can drive up the cost /value of a coin/currency from a collector’s vantage point. Contrast this from an investor’s vantage point. An investor is looking to purchase a commodity of value at the lowest possible cost with the highest possible value to hold until it increases in value, or is able to be leveraged in some way to his/her advantage. In the case of precious metals as one such commodity, the numismatic issues listed above are of little consequence because

  1. They drive up the costs artificially and  
  2. The value of the metal itself as a commodity is what is important.

Having said that, however, the investor market still holds room for personal preference as to design features and other meanings specific to investor preferences.

So let’s move on to discussing what’s going on with the US Mint. Keep in mind that the Gold and Silver Eagles are Legal Tender (howbeit greatly undervalued with a face value of $1 for silver and $50 for gold).1. As a government institution, the US Mint production of silver and gold products is dependent upon the annual allocation by the Treasury of precious metals purchased under their annual budget. This is a fixed, finite, amount (contrary to private mints or commercial entities that just purchase more when they run out).

  

In the last 2 years, 2008, & 2009, the US Treasury allocated LESS silver / gold than in previous years to their Silver Eagles program. This has several implications:

  • Silver/Gold Eagles for these years will be rarer than in previous years.
  • With current investment demand being higher due to the economic climate, there will be shortages.
  • The US Mint sales currently top 25,000,000 for 2009.
  • Because of the shortages, the short-term pricing will carry a higher premium (over spot). This is basic market economics.

2. In 2008, the US Mint also had to suspend sales of the gold & silver American Eagles. I had just begun investing in them in the fall of 2008… and I ran into this very issue myself last year. (Remember, the Treasury had cut back supply of metals in 2008 as well.)

3. Just because the US Mint has suspended sales does NOT mean that you cannot obtain these coins elsewhere from sellers who have had the foresight to stock up or vendors who are resellers for the US mint. But, bear in mind the following:

  • Buyers will pay a higher premium
  • Buyers will find they may have to wait extended periods of time for delivery after paying for their coins.

The US Mint may produce a few more of the 2009 Eagles yet before the close of the year. On the other hand, they may just be trying to regulate the rate at which they deplete the remaining supply. Since we are approaching the end of 2009, this isn’t too alarming because 2010 is just around the corner; new allocations for the next year will be in place and they will begin minting the 2010 Silver and Gold American Eagles and the cycle begins again.

I do have a source of limited supply for circulated Silver American Eagles from time to time. These will have scratches or small dings, and perhaps need cleaning up if you want to get them in pristine shape… But the premiums are lower and they’re still Eagles if you’re a real American Eagles fan… If you’re interested, drop me a note and I’ll watch for the next stock available in these…

I do still have sources for obtaining Eagles after our current inventory is depleted; however, I, too, will be subject to these higher premiums; so if and when that time comes, I may need to decide not to carry them due to the price point we will have to charge for them. After all, my mindset is more of an investor than collector… and I will want to keep as much of the commodity on hand as possible and not waste precious resources on artificially inflated premiums. Having said that, if you still want Eagles, drop me a note or call, and I’ll be happy to see what I can do… generally speaking, however, know that there will probably be minimum order volumes imposed upon me by my vendors…generally, those are 500 or more coins.

Things to Come for Tea Party Silver

On another note… I’ve shared with you in the past that we will be minting a new 1 Troy oz, .999 fine silver divisible bar (similar to the Stagecoach bars we now carry) … we are still in waiting mode on this, but I will give you a sneak preview of the artwork… I had hoped these would be ready for Christmas, but it doesn’t look like we’re going to make production in time. I will definitely be sending out a note when they come off the production line. Our first run will be in silver; later in the year after we get supply of gold running from the mine, we intend to produce these in 1 oz gold as well.This design is obviously inspired by our Alaska mining venture, but also takes its text from Zechariah 13:9 in Scripture.

“This third I will bring into the fire; I will refine them like silver and test them like gold. They will call on my name and I will answer them; I will say, ‘They are my people,’ and they will say, ‘The LORD is our God.'” 

We felt this text brings together the concept of how adversity distills character as well as references the challenges we are all facing in these turbulent times, which many believe to be ‘last days’ scripture talks about. We also felt that it instills hope in what the future holds and a sense of direction that we need to be taking as individuals and as a country.

Contact us at silver@teapartysilver.org
888-203-2232 x 1

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This is an interview w/ Adrian Douglas of http:.//www.marketforceanalysis.com and he is also the director of GATA. His work is proprietary and it measures the supply and demand in a particular market. The reading is the “force” for that market. The vast majority of the interview concerned Gold and Silver and in great detail. Adrian made some very interesting comments about Silver towards the end…

See video at http://www.thefinancialtube.com/video/3551/Interview-with-Adrian-Douglas-marketforceanalysiscom

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Alf Fields tells Jim Sinclair: Gold to $1650
Posted by: “kevin” kevin.mckern@gmail.com spacerkev
Fri May 22, 2009 7:38 am (PDT)

From Yahoo Group “InvestorsExchange”

I bring to you the following with the specific permission of Alf Fields. I have suggested to you often in the past that once the price of gold reaches into its maximum potential it will not repeat the fall of the 1980s. I foresee gold re-entering the system in a new and unique form that does not include convertibility. It will not be tied to interest rates as it once was in its previous form. I have written to you various times about the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate ratio, modernized and revitalized, which now may well be associated with an SDR form of an International Central Bank. The tie between the ratio and gold would be a measure of international liquidity considered zero or 100 on the day of adoption.

The following is Alf’s statement yesterday, with his permission to post: “Gold cannot decline from its highs as it will be incorporated into the national and international monetary systems at that time.” –Alf Fields, May 20, 2009

Now do you have any questions why Fund Wizard Paulson just got long a few billion dollars worth of Gold ETFs and a few major gold producers? Finally a major event has taken place that is a US dollar milestone. The financing and extremely important event is the arrangement between China and Brazil displaces the dollar as China becomes the major trading partner with Brazil. Since then the Rial has been celebrating and the dollar has been depressed. This is a once in approximately a century replacement of a trading currency that has always meant a dethronement of the deposed and coronation of a new currency king. The last time this happened was when the US dollar supplanted the British Pound as the major trading currency and entity with Brazil 79 years ago. It took the Brits 300 years to supplant the Portuguese Escudo with the British Pound. Only twice has this occurred in 379 years. This is obscure to most but not to Mr. Paulson the hedge wizard. Obscure to most, but not to our gang at JSMineset. The dollar died in Rio and that means everywhere.\ The dollar is in for a very cold winter. There is one thing that is absolutely certain and that is Gold is now headed to at least $1650 and in all probability much higher. This is happening NOW! What more do you need to know?

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from http://metalsleasing.com/metals_leasing_explained.php

I was surprised to find that many silver and gold investors who had been buying the metals for many years still do not know what Metals Leasing is and why it is the single most bullish factor to own either Gold or Silver as 2009 begins.It is my opinion that the metals leasing program is about to unwind for both Gold and Silver and the price effect of this unwinding will be profound and instant.Silver stands as a much better candidate to Gold for reasons explained in this article, however gold will not be left out of the picture either.

Below is a simple, easy to read article on Silver Metals Leasing. In my opinion, metals leasing will play out differently for Gold than Silver, so this article focuses on the Silver aspect, given that it is consumed more and will, in my opinion, will surge much more than Gold as metals leasing unwinds.

Origins – The Bankers “Problem”

silver leasingLarge banks with huge stockpiles of Gold and Silver sitting in their vaults never earned any income from their bullion. After all, the metals intended function was to preserve wealth for the bank, not create it.Greed is a powerful force. Just “having” Gold and Silver wasn’t good enough for the major banks and they scratched their heads as to how they can bleed even more profit from their enterprises, in particular, how can they turn their Metal into money, without getting rid of their Metal!The big banks would never want to just sell their Gold and Silver reserves as it represents and backs their enterprise and is what instils faith in their organisation – but hey who says you can’t make some cash on the side, huh?

The Solution

Some smart banker from the banking Cartels, who no doubt got a promotion after coming up with the idea said “What if we lease the metals?buy silver bullionLease to the smaller banks for say, 1 or 2 percent per year on the value of the physical metal.This way we could earn more cash, while still keeping legal ownership over all our precious metal! Brilliant!

But why would other banks lease metal just to keep them in their vaults, I hear you ask? Good question… read on.

Crack Open Them Vaults!

Metals leasing was borne, and it was a huge success!The banking cartel opened their vaults and started delivering physical bullion to the smaller banks on lease contracts.And to answer your question from the previous paragraph – The smaller banks had no problem in paying 1-2% for the metals because they sold the metals into the open market and invested the cash into higher yielding assets (assets that paid more percentage points than what the metals were leased for in the first place).

silver investmentA major windfall for both the banking cartel who started earning money for leasing their otherwise stagnate assets, and the smaller banks loved the few percentage points they made risk free. Everyone happy right?

Before I continue, lets examine the specifics of this.

 

Silver and Gold are considered fungible. This means that if I lend you 1kg of pure gold, regardless of what happens with that bar of gold, silver inflationso long as you return ANY gold bar of equal weight, that is considered as good as the original one I lent. This is the only way metals leasing can work. No-one in their right mind would lease anything and then sell it into the open market if they had to get that exact same bar of metal back at the end of the lease.

 

 

By selling the metals from the big banks, there is the appearance of oversupply of silver and gold in the market. silver metals leasing scamAs will become evident later, this is a fake supply hitting the market, but the metals price depression is a real effect of this fake supply.

 

 

The banks who are leasing the Silver and Gold make guaranteed profit as the metals leasing cost (1-2%) is far below what they gold metals leasing scamcan make in the open market when they sell the bullion and invest in a 4-5% yielding asset (Government bonds, t-bills etc). When the metals lease expires, generally there is no reason to return the Metal (i.e. buy the metals back from the open market) – it makes more sense to roll the lease into another contract.

A Real Life Example

As a result of this leasing, the price of silver and gold are beaten down compared to where they should rightfully be.To see the effect of this leasing on the market, consider the following example.A Bank owns 500 houses in any given suburb. They then rent (lease) these houses out to tenants who, at the end of the contract promise to return the house or rollover into another rental contract.Now lets say that these 500 tenants decide to sell their rental houses, and invest the money made into other ventures (Yes, this is illegal for real-estate – but allowed for precious metals – go figure!).

silver price manipulationWhat would 500 houses being sold in that suburb do to the price of real-estate in that area? It would fall through the floor. The other houses in the area would be devalued to a large degree. This would also force other sales in the area as investors see the price of real-estate falling and get out of the market – creating a domino effect of plummeting house prices.

This same effect of a price suppression is seen on the price of both Gold and Silver. Through leasing – there is only a fake supply of metals on the market (remember the actual owner doesn’t want to sell the metal, that’s the whole reason why they are just leasing it out in the first place).

Some call this manipulation of the markets. I agree, but it also creates an opportunity like never before – read on.

Profits Galore

buy silver today
So back to leasing… the big banks making 1-2% on metals that were just sitting in their vault – they are happy. After all, the bullion being leased to the banks are recorded as assets of the bank as if it were still sitting in their vault – and at some stage will get them back (well, so they think!)The bullion and smaller banks are happy because they are making more money re-investing profits earned from the sale of the metal into the open market.Only the staunch silver investor is unhappy because he is seeing this fake supply of metals decimate his investment.Metals leasing is money in the bag for the banks for as long as the system is in place. But really, we all know that no-one gets a free ride in the long run – especially in the banking industry.Enron Style Accounting

silver manipulation
But isn’t these sales of silver and gold diminishing supplies and as such – wouldn’t the price rally on such a force?Well, here is where it starts to get a little shifty. The big central banks consider their lease contracts sold to smaller banks “as good as Gold or Silver” since, legally, they can call the lease in at any time or the bank doing the leasing and return the metal at the end of the lease.The banks have dealt with paper and computer electrons for so long, they forget they are dealing with a tangible asset and no paper trade could ever get the physical metal back into their vaults!So the big banks, when reporting their assets, count physical silver AND silver that is under lease as 1 line item… that is, even if 90% of a banks silver is out on loan, its still appears on the books as sitting in the vault!But what if the Silver cannot be returned – period?

Show Me The Metal!
silver bar
Here’s the gottchya point. The silver being leased, which is then sold, is gone and cannot be repaid. There is not enough silver above ground to account for the deficit on lease. It is estimated that a full 2 years supply of silver that is out “on loan” has been sold and used in our computers and electrical, our medical industry, our photography, our solar panels, our military equipment and a myriad of other products.You see, Silver (unlike gold) is not just horded for its intrinsic value – it is consumed – its gone baby.Now maybe the big banks didn’t realise just how much Silver would be used before starting to lease it out – or maybe they did but concluded that silver is in abundance and leasing makes sense (as was the case 3-4 decades ago).In 2009 however, there is no even 1 year supply of Silver above ground, yet there are 2 years supply of lease contracts needing to be returned. You do the math!

What’s the End-Game?
silver 2009 prediction
I’ve postured below how the end game may play out in Silver Metals Leasing. I cannot say it will play out the same for Gold, but it may. Here are the flags I think we’ll witness before Silver makes its mighty leap.Red Flag #1: The banks leasing the Silver will become concerned about hard inventory levels and the ability for repayment at some stage (its already too late however).Red Flag #2: In order to not create a run on Silver, they will gently increase the Silver lease rates over time as to not scare other banks into the realisation of the same problem they are witnessing. It’s important they do this relatively slowly… the last thing these lenders want is a run on Silver as it diminishes their chances of getting the physical back into the vault.Red Flag #3: As the lease rates increase, it doesn’t make sense to keep the monies earned from selling the Silver in the first place in the open market and lease contracts will not be rolled over.Red Flag #4: Metals will be bought back on market and delivered to the leasing banks.

Red Flag #5: As this starts to happen en masse, Comex and other Silver exchanges will default on delivery and at that time the cat is out of the bag and the Silver rush will ensue.

Lets look at what happened to the price of Nickel when Comex defaulted on that in 2006.

The price went from about $5 to $25 – 500% increase – and that for a non-precious, highly common metal with no physical world shortage.

There are other factors in the Silver market at play than were in play with Nickel…

As my other article illustrates, we have a worldwide shortage, not just one shortage in exchange. Comex will not be the first to default, infact it will be a catalyst for worldwide shortages as other warehouses are asked for delivery.

The US economy is already on tenterhooks. A precious metals shortage discovery would be just the ticket for mass liquidation of US dollars into stores of wealth such as Gold or Silver. We are already seeing this play out in fact… once entire nations start dumping US Dollars however, it’s a bleak outlook from then on.

The paper price of Silver will head towards zero. As most Silver investors are aware, places like comex trade 100’s of times more paper than what is in their Warehouses. These pieces of paper will approach their true value which is determined by the following formula

(Number of Available Contracts / Actual Inventory) * Market Value of Commodity.

If the actual inventory goes to zero – so to does the price. Do not trade Silver on paper and expect to benefit from the shortage, if anything a speculative SHORT is in play for paper.

Before these paper contract reach their value however, there may be a price burst to the upside before the realisation that paper is worthless. Personally, I won’t be speculating on paper at all during this time.

Inflationary concerns are real for the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve is committed to this “quantative easing” policy which Obama has already committed to allowing with his “stimulus” (read: printing) plans. This factor alone is causing precious metals to increase in paper money terms.

Mining is declining due to the recent bashing Silver has taken over the past 6 months. Most Silver is mined as a secondary metal (70% of production). As base metals decline (and they will further in my opinion – however that is not the scope of this article) Silver will continue to be less attractive. It is only after the price explosion coming where Silver will once again become VERY attractive to mine… but the deficit and immediate demand won’t stop the price going sky high in the interim.

With SO MANY factors at play, its impossible to put a price target for Silver. Anyone who does put a price target on Silver is doing so more for readability than truly understanding just how many factors are at play here.

I do believe however that Silver will be worth more than Gold at some point in time, if only for a short period of time.

John Christian.
January 1st. 2009.

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